我国碳市场协同发展的影响因素分析

Factors Affecting the Synergetic Growth of Chinese Carbon Market

基于全球长期减排目标可能对我国碳排放构成的约束,以及国内能源资源的禀赋实际,加快实施我国碳市场健康发展成为必然选择。基于协同理论及复杂系统理论,从系统子系统角度对碳市场进行功能分析,将泛碳市场系统分为包含需求、供给、交易子系统的核心碳市场系统,以及支持子系统,构建了我国碳市场系统的模型;从复杂系统视角对影响因素进行提取,运用主成分分析法识别系统序参量,碳交易量、碳交易价格、人均GDP、绿化面积为影响系统发展方向的序参量;根据序参量建立系统演化的灰分方程,分析我国碳市场发展过程中的协同情况。分析结果表明:各子系统对于整个系统的影响力度相差较大,反映了我国碳市场各子系统的协同程度较低的现象;各子系统的相互作用也证明了我国碳市场协同发展的正向性;其中尤其应该注意,交易子系统包含了碳市场系统的主要信息,而其协同发展程度较低。针对以上研究,提出了我国在发展碳市场过程中促进其协同度的相关政策与建议。

It has become an inevitable choice for China manner based on the constraints that global long-term to speed up the growth of the carbon market in a healthy emission reduction goals may have on China＇s carbon emissions as well as China＇s actual energy resource endowment.Based on synergetics theories and complex system theories,this article analyzes the functions of the carbon market from the perspective of a system plus its sub-systems.It divides the genetic carbon market system into the core carbon market system,which in- cludes demand ,supply and a sub-system for trading ,and the supportive sub-system,and develops a model for China＇s carbon market system.By extracting influencing the main component analysis method to identify system carbon trading factors from a complex system perspective and using order parameter and carbon volume of carbon traded, price ,per capita GDP and green area as order parameters that influence system development, and establishing an ash content equation,the article analyzes the synergies that appear during the develop- ment of the Chinese carbon market.Analysis results show that different sub-systems have varied influence on the entire system,indicating a low degree of synergy between the sub-systems of the Chinese carbon market. The interaction between the sub-systems is also a proof of the positivity of a synergetic growth of the Chinese carbon market.Noticeably, the system and its degree of synergy vant policies and suggestions that market. trading sub-system contains the main information of the carbon market is relatively low.Surrounding the above research,this article proposes releboosts the degree of synergy during the process of developing a carbon