2011-2050年贵州省降水侵蚀力时空变化特征

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Rainfall Erosivity in Guizhou Province from 2011 to 2050

【目的】探究西南山区未来降水侵蚀力变化规律。【方法】根据中国天气发生器NCC/GU-WG Version 2.0模型预测的2011-2050年贵州省19个气象站逐日降水量数据,利用日降雨侵蚀力模型,运用克吕格插值、小波分析等方法对贵州省2011-2050年降水侵蚀力时空变化特征进行了分析。【结果】结果表明：全省多年平均降水侵蚀力与多年平均降水量空间分布一致,均由东部、南部向西部、北部逐渐降低;多年平均降水侵蚀力在高程与坡度梯度上差异突出;6～8月降水侵蚀力占全年的62%;40年间降水侵蚀力呈下降趋势,存在28年、17年和9年的主周期变化。【结论】未来降水量时空变化特点是影响贵州省降水侵蚀力变化的主要因素。

[Objective] The aim of the study was to explore the variation of future rainfall erosivity in the southwest montane region. [Method] Based on the daily rainfall data from 2011 to 2050 in 19 meteorological stations predicted by NCC/GU-WG Version 2.0 model of weather generator in China, this paper analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of rainfall erosivity in Guizhou province from 2011 to 2050 by the method of Kriging interpolation and wavelet analysis. [Results] There was a similar spatial distribution for average rainfall and average rainfall erosivity, namely average rainfall and average rainfall erosivity decreased from east and south parts to north and west parts. Significant differences of average rainfall erosivity were observed among elevations and slope gradients. Rainfall erosivity from June to August accounted for 62% of annual rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity declined from 2011 to 2050 and had the periodical dynamics of 28, 17 and 9 years. [Conclusion] Spatial and temporal variations of future rainfall are dominant factors affecting variation of rainfall erosivity in Guizhou province.