未来五年全球经济金融展望

World Economic and Financial Outlook in the Next Five Years

未来五年是全球经济金融的调整期,发达经济体经济增长动能缺乏,新兴市场经济体进入停滞。全球贸易低增速的状况不会改观,通货紧缩的幽灵仍将在发达经济体徘徊,而实际利息率维持较低水平。杠杆率的上升及金融机构的坏账、国际资本的无序流动、金融市场的过度波动、资产泡沫的破裂等都是金融危机的火种,未知的是金融危机之火在哪个新兴经济体燃烧。

The global economy and finance can be expected to continue to adjust in the next five years. The low global trade growth will not change, Advanced economies will still suffer deflation, and real interest rates will be low. Higher leverage ,bad loans of financial institutions, the disorder of international capital flow, the excessive volatility in financial markets, asset bubble, etc may cause the financial crisis, emerging economies have a high probability of financial crisis.