世界能源格局走势分析

Analysis of Trends of Global Energy Pattern

世界能源格局走势的初步判断为:新兴市场国家将带动能源需求持续增长,预计未来20年世界能源消费年均增长1.4%左右;全球范围内应对气候变化和大气污染防治将深度改变未来能源结构,预计未来20年清洁能源占一次能源消费比重将提高10个百分点以上;未来能源供应在地域上更趋多极化,能源生产西移,在能源品种上更趋多元化;能源贸易重心从大西洋盆地向亚太地区转移;能源价格将逐步走出低迷状态,缓慢回升。

The paper analyses the future trends of global energy situation through energy demand, energy structure, energy supply, energy trading and energy prices. Combining factors which affect the trends of globat energy situation with forecast results from related institutions, the paper makes following preliminary judges： （1） emerging market countries will continue to drive growth in energy demand and the annual growth rate of world energy consumption is expected to reach around 1.4% over the next 20 years; （2） global climate change and air pollution prevention will lead to deeply change in future energy structure and the proportion of clean energy in primary energy consumption will increase by 10 percentage points or more over the next 20 years; （3） future energy supply in the region will become more muhipolar with energy production shifted westward, meanwhile energy breed will become more diversified; （4） center of energy trading will shift from regions of the Atlantic basin to the Asia-Pacific; （5） energy prices will gradually go out of recession and start to rise slowly.