老龄化与医疗费用支出:基于“临近死亡”效应的分析

Ageing and Medical Cost Expense:Based on the Analysis of“Dying”Effectireness

目的:分析临近死亡时老龄化与医疗费用支出之间的关系。方法:利用2013年中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,根据退出及死因问卷和普通家庭入户调查问卷设定死亡退出组和存活调查组,探讨不同年龄组人口在死亡前1年以及死亡前1个月在医疗费用支出方面的差异。结果:在未临近死亡时,老年人的医疗费用支出并不会出现大的增加,而实际死亡年龄越高,其平均医疗费用支出反而越低。结论:如果不考虑临近死亡效应,仅仅从年龄角度来讨论人口老龄化与医疗费用的联系,将会高估人口老龄化对于医疗费用的影响。

Objective： To discusses the relationship between aging and medical expenses during the coming of death. Methods： Based on China Health anti Retirement Longitudinal Study 2013, exit death group and survival group were divided according to exit surveys cause of death questionnaire and general household survey questionnaire. The differences of medical expenses among different groups hefore the deaths in a year and a month were discussed. Results： The medical expenses of the elderly wouht not make large increase if not close to the death. The higher the actual age of death was, the lower the average medical expenses would be. Conclusion： Without considering the effect of near death, only discuss the relationship between population aging and medical costs from the perspective of age would overestimate the impact of aging.