长河坝水电站初期施工导流方案的风险决策研究

Research on Risk Decision-making of Early Construction Diversion Schemes of Changheba Hydropower Station

水电站施工导流方案的决策是一个复杂的不确定性问题。通过引入区间数学理论和群组决策思想,建立风险决策区间分析方法对水电站施工导流方案进行决策。该方法采用区间数表示评价指标属性值,体现其风险决策过程所具有的不确定性;基于群组决策的不确定型AHP法确定评价指标的权重,便于充分利用专家群体的智慧和经验。将该分析方法应用于长河坝水电站工程中的初期施工导流方案中,对30年一遇和50年一遇的施工导流标准进行风险决策,应用结果验证了所建立的分析方法合理可行。

The decision-making of hydropower station construction diversion scheme is a complex uncertainty problem. By introducing interval mathematical theory and group decision-making idea, a risk decision-making interval analysis method is established to select construction division scheme of hydropower. station The interval number is used to represent the property value of evaluation index in this method, which reflects the uncertainty of risk decision-making process. The weight of evaluation index is determined by uncertain AHP based on group decision-making idea, which can facilitate the use of experts’ experiences. The method has been used in early construction division scheme analyses of Changheba Hydropower Station to evaluate the risks of construction division schemes under the floods with 30-year frequency and 50-year frequency respectively. The application has verified the feasibility of proposed method.