考虑方案有效性的应急案例决策方法

Decision method for emergency case with considering effectiveness of alternative

针对基于案例推理的应急方案生成问题,从方案有效性判断和实施效果融合两个角度出发,提出一种考虑方案有效性的应急案例决策方法.首先,依据决策者给出的预估方案生成有效的案例集,利用检索方法计算有效历史案例与目标案例的相似度;然后,根据距离熵方法对多时期的方案实施效果进行融合,集结相似度和实施效果,进而得到每个案例的综合评价值,并根据综合评价值的大小确定最优备选方案;最后,通过一个高层建筑火灾算例验证了所提出方法的可行性和有效性.

For problem of generating emergency alternative based on case-based reasoning, an emergency case decision method with considering the effectiveness of the alternative is developed from the effective judgment of the alternative and fusion of the implement effect. According to the forecast alternative of the decision maker, the effective case set is generated, and the similarities between the effective historical cases and the target case are calculated. Then, the method of distance entropy is used to fuse the effect of many periods of alternative implementation. Furthermore, the overall evaluation value of each alternative is calculated by integrating the similarities and the effectiveness, and the desirable alternative can be determined according to the obtained overall evaluation value. Finally, a high-rise building fire example is used to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.