2000年以来吉林省人口变动特征及多模型预测

The characteristics of population change and population prediction of Jilin Province based on multi-models since 2000

以2001—2012年统计数据为样本,分别构建了马尔萨斯模型、Logistic模型及灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,对吉林省2013—2020人口变化特征、人口性别结构特征、人口年龄结构特征进行了预测,并对模型预测结果进行了检验和分析.结果表明:(1)吉林省人口增长率呈现下降趋势,并具有阶段性特征,2000年是一个显著的转折点;人口死亡率基本稳定,人口出生率和人口自然增长率保持一致,人口的机械增长因素对于吉林省人口变动影响较小.(2)从人口结构来看,吉林省男女成年性别比在世界公认性别比正常值范围内,并低于全国平均水平;吉林省人口年龄结构呈现出明显的老龄化特征,60岁以上年龄阶段人口比重超过国际标准和全国水平.(3)三种人口预测模型中,Logistic模型误差较小且与吉林省人口发展阶段和人口结构特征相适应,依据该模型预测的吉林省2020年总人口将达到2 800万人,人口增长速度趋缓,且有过渡到零增长和负增长的趋势.

Population is a very important factor that affects a region,the trend of a population will affect the development of the society and its economy.Regional population growth is a nonlinear system.The accurate population prediction has important reference significance for government to make economic and social development plan.It analysed the population change,sex structure characteristics and age structure characteristics of Jilin Province.According to 2001—2012annual statistical data of the total population in Jilin Province,the Malthusian model,logistic model and gray system GM（1,1）model are used to simulate and forecast the total population from 2013 to 2020in Jilin Province,then it inspected and analysed the result of the model prediction.The conclusions indicate as follows：（1）The population growth rate has a trend of decline and has obvious stage characteristics,a significant turning point year is 2000;Population mortality rate is basically stable,the birth rate and natural population growth rate are consistent,the mechanical growth has poor influence on the change of the population.（2）The sex ratio of adult men and women in Jilin Province is within the normal range in the world,and below the national average level;the population older than 60 years old is more than the international standard and national level,the population age structure has a obvious characteristic of aging.（3）The Logistic model is better than other two models according to mean errors,and adapted to the characteristics of population development and population structure.The population of Jilin Province will reach to 28 million in 2020,has a slow growth rate and a transition to a zero growth and negative growth trends.