基于结构分析的农产品仓单质押风险联动研究

Study of risk interconnection of agricultural product warehouse receipt pledge based on structural analysis

农产品仓单质押是农产品供应链金融创新模式,能有效缓解农产品企业融资难的问题,但其业务风险明显高于工业产品,其风险形成机制具有时滞型、动态性、反馈性、非线性、数据不充分及人为因素影响的特点。基于此,本文从系统和运动的观点出发,运用系统动力学方法剖析农产品仓单质押风险联动系统的内部结构和运行机制,构建由风险评估子系统、银行利益子系统和农产品利益子系统3个子系统流图构成的农产品仓单质押风险联动系统模型,运用VENSIM仿真软件仿真了系统的运行过程,分析了系统的运行特征。该模型的建立将为今后农产品仓单质押风险调控政策的制定和实施提供有益的支持。

Warehouse receipt pledge of agricultural products is a supply chain finance innovation model, which can effectively relieve agricultural enterprise financing difficult problem.But its business risk is significantly higher than industrial products’. The riskformation mechanism is time-lag, dynamics, feedback, nonlinear, date-insufficient and affected by human factors. Based on this,from the system and dynamic viewpoint,this paper analyzes the internal structure and operational mechanismof risk interconnection of agricultural products logistics warehouse receipt pledge, and then risk interconnection system model is established.It consists of three subsystemswhich are riskassessment subsystem, agricultural enterprises interests subsystem and banks interests subsystem.The operation process of the system is simulated by using vensimsimulation softwareand the system characteristics show up. The establishment of the proposed model can provide the useful technique support for further establishment and implementation of the agricultural products warehouse receipt pledge risk control.