近54年来玉溪市气候变化特征分析

Climate Change Trends and Characteristics of Yuxi in Recent 54 Years

利用线性趋势函数、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall突变检测分析法及方差分析外推法等,分析了玉溪市1960-2013年温度及降水的变化趋势和特征.结果表明：近54年来玉溪市气候变化呈现温度升高及降水量减少的暖干化趋势,温度增加速率为0.26℃/10a,降水减少速率为19.08 mm/10a.1994年发生增温突变,年降水量在2009年发生了由多向少的突变.干季温度增温率强于雨季,且干季降水量增加的幅度没有雨季降水量减少幅度大.21世纪以来是近54年来玉溪市温度最高且降水最少的一个阶段,尤其在2009-2013年降水持续偏少,致使玉溪市出现“四连旱”.玉溪市1960-2013年期间,温度周期变化不明显,而降水量存在准18a和7~8a的周期振荡.

The tendency and feature of the temperature and precipitation during 1960 to 2013 in Yuxi were analyzed by using linear trend function, moving average,Mann-Kendall abrupt change test method and analysis of variance extrapolation method. The results show that the changing of climate in Yuxi reflected the warm,the dry tendency containing the rise of temperature and the reduce of precipitation. The annual mean temperature increased at the trend rate of 0. 26 ℃/10a. The annual precipitation decreased at the rate of 19.08 mm/10a. An abrupt temperature change happened in 1994,and an abrupt change from more to less of annual precipitation occurred in 2009. The increasing trend of air temperature is more obvious in dry season than rainy season, and the size of the dry season temperature increases is lower than the size of the rainy season temperature decrease. The 21st century is the stage which has the highest temperature and the lowest precipitation in Yuxi during the recent 54 years. Especially,the sustaining low precipitation in 2009 to 2013 made the rfour years dryr come out in Yuxi. The cycle change of temperature is not obvious. The periodic variations of annual precipitation time series exist two evident charac- teristic time scale with 7-8 years and 18 years.