部分与全面“营改增”对我国行业税负影响的实证研究——基于投入产出表的模拟测算

Emprical Research on the Impact Caused by Replacing Part of and Total Business Tax with VAT in China:Simulation Based on the Input-Output Tables

自2012年上海部分行业营业税改征增值税(下文简称"营改增")试点的展开到2016年5月1日"营改增"试点在全部服务业全国范围内的全面推行,我国完成财税体制的又一次深刻变革。文章基于《中国投入产出表2012》,借鉴国内外增值税税基及税负模拟测算方法,结合此次政策背景和改革以来一系列试点方案内容,对我国工业及服务业部分与全面"营改增"前后行业税负水平变化进行模拟测算。通过对比"营改增"之前、部分"营改增"以及当前全面"营改增"三个时期行业税负水平的变化,分析"营改增"全面推行后对我国行业税负带来的新的影响,以期为政策顺利推行提供相关参考。

China has completed the profound changes in fiscal and taxation system since Shanghai launched a pilot about replacing part of the business tax with VAT in 2012 to all cities launched the pilot about replacing total business tax with VAT in 5, 1, 2016. Based on the ＂Chinese Input-Output Table 2012＂, this article learns from the VAT tax base and tax calculation method simulation, combined with the policy context and the content of a series of pilot programs since the reform to calculate the changes of tax burden industrial and services before and after the replacing part of and total business tax with VAT. By comparing the changes of tax burden of industries in three different periods, this article tries to analyze the new influences about the policy which replacing total business tax with VAT and makes the conclusion to provide a reference for the smooth implementation of policy.