鄂西南地区五峰县凉风洞滑坡灾害风险分析

Risk Analysis of Liangfengdong Landslide in Wufeng County,Southwest Hubei Province

单体滑坡定量风险分析是滑坡领域研究的重要内容。以湖北省西南地区五峰县凉风洞滑坡为例,首先应用Geo-studio软件对不同降雨条件下滑坡渗流场和稳定性进行了模拟分析;然后采用定性与定量相结合的方法分析了室内人员和建筑物的易损性;最后引入年超越概率方法计算滑坡经济与人口年风险,并对滑坡单人风险进行了分区。结果表明:滑坡影响范围内的居民区处于风险极高区。该研究成果有助于提高单体滑坡定量风险分析水平,并为凉风洞滑坡防治提供参考。

Risk analysis of individual landslide is a very important content in the field of landslide risk research. Liangfengdong landslide in Wufeng County, Hubei Province was taken as an example to study individual landslide risk. The seepage field and stability change in different rainfall return periods were firstly simulated by Geostudio software. The vulnerability of building and indoor individual was analyzed by combining qualitative and quantitative analysis. Furthermore, the annual economic risk and individual risk were calculated quantitatively by using exceeding probability method.Finally, risk zoning of individual landslide was also done. The results show that the area of residence affected by landslide was located in extremely high risk zone.The research results could improve the analysis of individual landslide risk, and offer an important reference for the prevention of Liangfengdong landslide.