物流发展、物流能源消耗与产业结构:基于VAR模型实证研究

On Development,Energy Consumption and Industrial Structure of Logistics: An Empirical Study Based on VAR Model

物流发展、物流能源消耗与产业结构是衡量一个国家或地区经济发展的重要指标,研究三者之间的关系对促进经济发展有重要的意义。运用VAR模型、Johansen协整检验、Granger检验、脉冲响应分析及方差分解等方法对全国1995—2012年物流发展、物流能源消耗与产业结构之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:物流发展、物流能源消耗和产业结构之间存在长期均衡的稳定关系;物流发展和物流能源消耗之间呈单向Granger原因;物流发展和产业结构之间呈双向Granger原因;物流能源消耗不是产业结构的Granger原因表现得不显著。

The development,energy consumption and industrial structure of logistics is a vital index to measure the economic development of a country or region. To investigate the relationship among the three has great practical significance to the promotion of economy. The paper made an emperical research on the national data between1995 and 2012 to analyze the relationship with VAR model,Johansen Cointegration test,Granger test,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition. The results showed that there is a stable long-run equilibrium among the three,an unidirectional Granger casuality between its development and energy consumption,a bidirectional Granger casuality between logistics development and industrial structure; while energy consumption does not show significantly as the Granger casuality in its industrial structure.