转型与发展:中国经济与政策十年

Transformation and Development:The Recent Decade of China's Economy and Policies

纵观近十年,中国与全球经济共同走过金融危机,逐步迈入"三期叠加"的新常态,经济发展呈现出与世界经济联系加强等八大特征;宏观经济政策也随之发生一定变化:从"双防"到"四万亿"强刺激,从强刺激到定向调控,从微刺激再到供给侧改革;从过度强调有效需求不足和危机管理向强调潜在供给能力下降和结构性改革,中国的宏观经济政策帮助我们首先从金融危机中走出,也越来越呈现中国特色的宏观调控特点:"三位一体"调控模式更加强化,调控目标的多元化决定了调控手段的泛化,在一定程度过多干预常态,同时也成为宏观经济波动的根源之一等等。而制约中国经济发展的结构性问题依然十分严重,以需求管理为主的宏观经济政策有效性不断降低,破解发展难题必须推进供给侧结构性改革。在推进供给侧结构性改革的同时,必须正确认识宏观调控短期目标与改革长期目标的协调、正确认识处理好政府与市场的关系、正确认识培育、建立中国优势产业体系的长期性等六大问题。

Looking back into the recent decade, China has gone through the financial crisis with the rest of the world, and is entering a 'Overlapped Three-Phase' new normal, while its economic growth exhibits eight characteristics including strengthened linkages with the world econo-my; macroeconomic policies are showing corresponding changes: from 'Double Prevention' to the strong stimulation of 'Four Trillion', from strong stimulation to directed control, from micro-stimulation to supply-side reformation, China's macroeconomic policies have facilitated a relatively easy transition from the financial crisis, and presenting more country-specific characteristics on the macro-control at the same time: with the 'Trinity' control mode enhanced, more diversified control targets lead to more generalized control methods, which can cause over-intervention and macro-economy fluctuation to some extent. It's worth noting that critical structural problems that refraining China's economy from developing still exist, the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies that focus on adjusting demand keeps decreasing, pushing forward the supply-side reformation seems to be the only solution for economic development in this stage. While doing so, it's necessary to realize six issues such as how to coordinate short-term macro-targets and long-term reformation goals,correctly understanding the relationship with government,establishing Chinese enterprises with long-term advantage,etc.