上证综指影响因素分析

Research on Major Factors Affecting the Shanghai Composite Index

文章系统性地研究影响上证综指的四大因素,即宏观经济状态、货币政策、股票市场制度和投资者行为,采取定量分析方法并运用VAR模型研究各个指标对上证综指的影响程度。得出四点结论:第一,上证综指与宏观经济状态不同步,短期内不能发挥"晴雨表"功能;第二,单一的经济政策调控股市效果不佳;第三,投资者行为对上证综指影响较大,切实保护中小投资者的利益是股市持续健康发展的保证;第四,现行的新股发行制度不完善,应积极推进注册制改革。

This paper systematically describes four factors that affect the Shanghai Composite Index, macroeconomic condition, monetary policy, the stock market system and investor behavior, and take a quantitative analysis method using various indicators on VAR Model degree of influence on the Shanghai Composite Index size. Draw four conclusions： First, the Shanghai Composite Index and the maeroeconomic state of sync, the index cannot play a ＂barometer＂ function in the short term; the second, a single economic policy control poor stock market results ; third, the impact of investor behavior to Shanghai Composite index is greater, protecting the interests of small investors guarantee a sustained and healthy development of the stock market; fourth, the current IPO system is flawed and the registration system reforms should be actively promoted.