山东省能源、经济与环境耦合关系的演化特征

The Evolution of Coupling Relationship Among Energy, Economy and Environment in Shandong Province

在全面解析系统耦合机制及其跃迁模式的基础上,构建了三系统耦合模型,基于山东省2001—2013年面板数据,实证分析了山东省能源、经济与环境三系统之间协调关系的动态演化特征。结果表明:山东省能源、经济与环境三系统的耦合度总体上呈上升态势,目前已达到初级协调发展状态,且其变化与能源—经济、能源—环境和经济—环境三类二元系统的协调发展程度密切相关;各二元系统协调发展的同步性,是三元系统耦合水平提升的基本前提。

Based on the comprehensive analysis of the coupling mechanism of system and its transition mode, we establish a coupling model of energy, economy and environment. By employing the model, we analyses the relationship between energy, economic and environment based on the data of Shandong Province. The results show that system coupling degree is increasing in general during 2001-2013, but it is in the stage of primary coordination with relatively lower coupling degree, and its change is closely related to the degree of coordination of energy-economic, energy- environment and economic-environment system. In addition, coordinated development of three kinds of 2E system is the basic premise of 3E system upgrading.