北京市批发企业区位分布演化与驱动力分析

Evolutionary Characteristics and Drivers of Location of Wholesale Firms in Beijing

基于微观企业数据,利用核密度估计、热点分析和多元Logistic回归分析等方法,分析了1949—2014年北京市批发企业区位分布的时空演化特征及其驱动力。结果发现,北京市批发企业演化经历了成长起步、快速发展和稳定扩散三个阶段。批发企业空间集聚特征显著,企业在中心区的集聚范围不断扩大,后期房山和昌平也逐渐形成集聚次中心。批发企业的驱动力在不同时期存在差异,由单一驱动力向多元驱动力转化,交通和市场是影响批发企业分布的关键因素。北京在进行首都非核心功能疏解时,针对批发行业的疏解应该充分把握其交通和市场的路径依赖特征。

Wholesaling is an important part of the city of commodity circulation, analyzing its spatial distribution and driving force is of great importance in understanding and optimizing urban spatial structure. Based on micro enterprise data, this paper used kernel density estimation, hot spot analysis and multivariate logistic regression to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of wholesale enterprises in Beijing in 1949-2014. The research found that the capital wholesale development experienced three stages： the stage of early growth, the stage of rapid development and the stage of stabilization. The spatial agglomeration characteristics of wholesale enterprises were significant. Besides, the concentration of enterprises in the central area was expanding, and the Fangshan and Changping districts were gradually formed the unconnected sub clusters in the later stage. Wholesale enterprise＇s driving forces were different in different periods, which were transformed from single driving force to multiple driving forces, and transportation and market were the key factors that affect the distribution of wholesale enterprises. When implement the policy of fimctional dispersal, it＇ s essential to consider the traffic and market path dependence characteristics of wholesale trade.