基于系统动力学的互联网舆情传递及引导策略研究

Research on Internet Public Opinion Transmission and Guidance Strategy Based on System Dynamics

通过互联网舆情传递"迁移"、"转化"两个过程分解,探究舆情Group间舆情迁移概率和舆情传播起点对舆情传递过程的影响。使用系统动力学方法,仿真互联网舆情传递的"迁移"及"转化"阶段,更加深刻的解析互联网舆情传递规律。通过仿真发现,随着舆情迁移概率的增大,并不能达到"实现舆情均衡状态所使用时间不断缩短"的预期状态,相反当舆情迁移概率超过某一值后,有可能导致舆情传递过程的失败。本研究从仿真角度找出了舆情迁移概率、舆情传递起点对舆情扩散过程的影响,以期为互联网舆情控制提供理论指导。

We explore the public opinion transfer probability and the starting point of the transfer process of public opinionthrough the research of the Internet public opinion transmission and transformation processes. Using the system dynamicsmethod, we simulated the ＂transfer＂ and ＂transformation＂ of Internet public opinion. According to the simulation result, itis found that the expected state cannot be researched with the increase of the public opinion transmission probability. Andit is likely to lead to the failure of public opinion transmission. This study forms the perspective of simulation to find outhow the public opinion transfer probability and public opinion transfer starting point affect the public opinion of thediffusion process, with a view to provide theoretical guidance for the internet public opinion control.