基于心理阈值模型的网络舆情传播机制仿真研究

The Analysis of Network Public Opinion Communication Mechanism Based on Psychological Threshold Model

基于社会网络理论,构建出网络舆情传播的心理阈值模型,采用Agent方法在无标度网络中模拟调节焦点、社群认同、关系强度等因素对舆情传播水平和速度的影响作用,从"个体-社群-网络"三个层次探究网络舆情传播机制。结果表明:与防御型和混合型相比,促进型调节焦点网络中的舆情传播水平和速度最高;低社群认同和弱关系环境更有利于网络舆情传播水平和速度的提升;网络构成对舆情传播水平和速度有倒U型关系,社群认同、调节焦点对这种关系有调节作用。

Based on the theory of social network, the paper constructs the psychological threshold model of network publicopinion communication, and uses the agent method to simulate the effect of regulatory focus, community identity, relation-ship strength on the communication level and speed in scale-free networks, and explores the network public opinion com-munication mechanism from ＂individual- social- network ＂ perspective. Results show that compared with the preventiontype or mixed type, communication level and speed is the higher in promotion regulatory focus type; low community identi-ty and weak tie is more advantageous to the level or speed growth of prevention group; community structure and public opin-ion communication level and speed have an inverted U-shaped relationship, community identity and regulatory focus canmoderate this relationship.