国家安全与对外政策:阿基诺三世的对华政策及其启示

National Security and Foreign Policy: Aquino Ⅲ Administration's Policy towards China and Its Implication

在阿基诺三世任内,菲律宾对华政策呈现巨大的转变。这种转变表现在两个方面:第一,在安全政策上,菲律宾在国家安全导向上从内部安全转向领土防御,菲律宾重启军事现代化,通过大规模采购武器,增加美国在菲律宾的军事存在,以应对中国在南海的安全挑战。第二,随着安全议题在中菲双边关系中的地位凸显,中菲双边关系逐渐冷淡,阿基诺政府在对外政策上,从阿罗约政府奉行的中美之间对等平衡政策转变到强化菲美联盟,联美制华。中国不再是菲律宾的战略伙伴,中菲关系降至历史低谷。在后阿基诺时代,菲律宾可能继续奉行依靠美国的安全政策,但在外交政策上可能修复对华关系,发展与中国的政治和经济关系,扭转阿基诺三世时期失衡的外交政策。

Aquino Ⅲ administration's policy towards China has seen a sea change since he took office in 2010. Firstly,the emphasis of national security shifted from internal security to territorial defense. In order to deal with the challenge posed by China in the South China Sea,Philippine is re-vitalizing military modernization by massive weapons procurement and is seeking to strengthen US's military presence in the Philippines. Secondly,with the rising urgency of South China Sea issue,the Philippines abandoned the policy of equally balancing between China and the US that was formed in the Arroyo era and moved to reinforce the Philippine-US alliance to counter-balance China in South China Sea. In this context,China is no longer a strategic partner of the Philippines and the Sino-Philippine bilateral relations hit the lowest point in history. In the post Aquino era,Duterte administration may maintain its security relations with the US while tries to repair and improve its political and economic relations with China.