面向光热发电的太阳能短期预报技术

Short-term Forecasting Technology of Solar Energy for Concentrating Solar Power

随着全球太阳能行业的迅猛发展,越来越多的太阳能以光热发电的形式被电网吸纳,准确地预报未来几天的法向直接辐射已成为光热项目并网和现场运行维护的基础。文中介绍了法向直接辐射的定义、国内电力工业标准、法向直接辐射短期预报方法、影响短期预报精度的要素和提高短期预报精度的方法,回顾了国内最新的研究进展,提出了当前研究中存在的问题,并对未来的研究趋势做了展望,以期对"十三五"期间太阳能热发电行业的发展提供参考。

Along with the rapid development of solar energy industry,more and more solar energy is integrated into electricity grid in the form of concentrating solar power（CSP）.Forecasting direct normal irradiance（DNI）accurately several days ahead has become the foundation for solar energy integration as well as operation and maintenance of a CSP power plant.Treated in the paper are the definition of DNI,the electric power industry standards in China, methodology of short-term DNI forecasting,influence factors of forecast accuracy,approaches to accuracy improvement,and most recent advances of research in the nation.Meanwhile,problems in current researches are presented and future research and trends are envisioned for reference by the development of CSP in the13th five-year plan＂period.