树轮记录的新疆阿尔泰山1579—2009年初夏温度变化

Early Summer Temperature History in the Altay Mountains Recorded by Tree Rings during 1579-2009

对新疆阿尔泰山中段森林上树线西伯利亚落叶松(Larix sibirica)树轮宽度标准化年表与区域气候要素进行相关分析,发现6月平均气温与树木径向生长存在显著相关关系(r=0.658,P<0.001)。据此重建的该地区1579—2009年间初夏温度变化曲线(解释方差为43.2%)表明,在过去431年,该地区经历了8个偏冷阶段和8个偏暖阶段,且对整个阿尔泰山有较好的空间代表性。功率谱分析表明,重建温度序列存在2.3a、2.4a的显著周期和3.9a、71.5a、95.3a的较显著周期。

We developed a tree-ring width chronology （KLD） of Larix sibirica from the high elevation forests of the central Altay Mountains in northern Xinjiang, China. Based on the correlation between the KLD chronology and local meteorological data, we found tree-ring width had significant and positive correlations with mean June temperature （r=0. 658, P〈0. 001）. Regional early summer temperature history （1579-- 2009 ） was therefore reconstructed, which explained 43.2 % of the instrumental variance for the period 1962 --2009. During the past 431 years, the reconstruction documented eight warm periods and eight cold peri- ods. According to the results of spatial correlation analysis, it revealed that the temperature reconstruction can represent the early summer temperature changes in Altay Mountains. Power spectrum analysis indicated the existence of some decadal （71.5 and 95.3 year） and interannual （2.3, 2.4 and 3.9 year） cycles.