台湾选民议题取向的空间模型分析

Spatial Model of Issue Orientation Among Taiwan Residents Voters

20世纪90年代以来,统"独"议题一直在台湾的政党竞争中扮演着重要角色。随着近年台湾经济不景气、贫富差距扩大,公共政策议题的影响力明显上升。在2012年台湾地区领导人选举中,社会正义与贫富不均更成为国民党和民进党政策攻防的焦点之一。那么,社会福利议题和统"独"议题何者更能影响选民的投票行为?本文基于2012年"台湾选举与民主化调查"数据,运用"空间理论"的"趋近模型"和"空间模型"分别检验统"独"议题和社会福利议题,找出最符合台湾选民"议题投票"行为的解释模型。同时,通过台湾选民议题取向的历时性分析,判断议题立场对选民投票行为影响程度的变化趋势。

Since the 1990s, the issue of unification and independence has played an important role in party competition in Taiwan. In recent years, due to the economic recession and a widening income gap between the rich and the poor in Taiwan province, the influence of social distribution has gradually increased. During the 2012 elections, the issue of social justice and inequality became one of the acutely debated issues between the ruling Kuomintang （KMT） and the opposition Democratic Progressive Party （DPP）. Which issue, social welfare or unification/independence options, is more important for Taiwan Residents voters？ This paper investigates the association between the voting behavior of Taiwan Residents and their issue orientations in the abovementioned two subjects via two models of spatial theories by employing the TEDS2012 data. It has reached a conclusion that different issues have various impacts on voting behavior of Taiwan Residents voters under different circumstances.