地方政府债务与经济增长——基于审计署2010～2013年地方政府性债务审计结果

Local Government Debt and the Economic Growth --Based on the 2010 -2013 audit results of CNAO

近年来，地方政府举债是否能促进当地经济社会的发展，与经济增长之间是否存在正向关系，成为人们关注的一个问题。然而，国内理论界一直缺乏直接的实证证据。为此，本文应用审计署2010～2013年地方政府性债务审计数据，通过多元统计分析，我们发现：地方政府债务能够促进地区经济增长，即两者之间呈正相关，但未发现两者之间存在拐点，即倒“U”型关系。另外，地方政府债务对经济增长的促进作用在经济不发达地区、高金融支持力度地区以及人口迁出地区更为明显。这是因为人口迁出通常与经济不发达有关，而经济不发达地区经济的增长更依赖政府的推动，从而使得政府债务拉动经济的作用更加突出，同时，高金融支持地区因融资方便这种作用亦会得到加强。

Recently it becomes a public concern whether local government debt would improve the development of local society and economy in China. However, direct evidences are scarcely to be found. From the perspective of multivariate statistical analysis ,by using the 2010 -2013 audit results of CNAO ,we find that has a positive relationship with economic growth, but neither the inflection point nor the local government debt ＂ U＂ shape relation is found. We further notice that the positive effect is stronger in less developed areas with higher financial supporting and greater population emigration. Because emigration areas are usually less developed, and the local economy would be more dependent on the local government debt. And it is similar in areas with more financial supportings because it＇s easier for local government to fund through debt.