中国建设用地碳排放强度及其区域差异分析

Analysis of the Built-up Area's Carbon Emission Intensity and Its Regional Disparity in China

研究碳排放量增长与建设用地扩张间的动态耦合关系,有助于深入理解城市化影响碳排放的内在机理。基于夜间灯光影像,该文首先提取了1999-2010年中国建设用地的空间分布,同时利用统计数据结合IPCC清单指南核算了30个省市的碳排放量;在此基础上,分析了全国建设用地碳排放强度的时空演变特征,并应用Theil指数开展了区域差异演变的影响机制分析。研究结果表明:(1)1999-2010年,全国建设用地碳排放强度增幅约为52%,从变化轨迹来看,建设用地碳排放强度经历了基本恒定-持续增强两个阶段,这与不同时期国家宏观政策的重大调整紧密相关;(2)Theil指数分析表明,全国建设用地碳排放强度的区域差异不断扩大,且区内差异是总体差异的主要来源;(3)京津冀地区产业空间的重新布局和调整,是影响建设用地碳排放强度区内差异演变的主要因素;而国家开发战略重心由东部沿海向内陆地区的转移,是区际差异演变的主要影响因素。

Study on the relationship between the surge of carbon emissions and the sprawl of built-up area is essential to understand the internal mechanism of urbanization＇s impact on carbon emissions.Based on DMSP-OLS nighttime light data,this paper extracts the dynamics expansion of built-up area in China from 1999 to 2010,and accounts the carbon emission inventory by coupling the socioeconomic statistics and the methodology proposed by IPCC.Furthermore,the spatio-temporal dynamic patterns of built-up area＇s carbon emission intensity were analyzed and main driving factors influencing the variation of inter-regional and intra-regional disparities through Theil index decomposition were identified.It is found that carbon emission intensity of built-up area in China has dramatically increased by 52 % from 1999 to 2010,and has gone through stable-accelerating stages,which strongly influenced by national development strategies and policies.The results of Theil index indicate that the regional disparity of built-up area＇s carbon emission intensity has enlarged significantly,and intra-regional disparity is the main component of total regional disparity.The intra-regional disparity driven largely by the spatial configuration of industries in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region makes the primary contribution to the scale of overall disparity.The inter-regional disparity is mainly driven by the spatial shift of national development strategy ＇s preferences from the east coast to the inland regions.