江苏省粮食生产时空变化:基于农业结构调整的视角

Grain Production Change in Jiangsu Province from Perspective of Agricultural Structural Adjustment

基于粮食产量计量模型,评估江苏省农业结构调整对粮食生产时空变化的影响效应。研究表明,江苏省粮食生产自1998年以来所经历的一轮波动,主要来自于粮作比的调整。其间粮食生产北强南弱的空间分化,与农作物播种面积的北扩南缩基本同步。粮食作物品种调整对粮食生产变化也有不可忽视的影响。未来江苏省粮食稳产的重点是建设好中北部的粮食生产功能区,稳定粮作比。

The effects of agricultural structural changes were assessed on grain output variation in Jiangsu province based on grain production computation models. The results showed that the fluctuation of grain output during the period of 1998-2012 was largely caused by the varying grain cropping share of total sown area. Meanwhile,the north Jiangsu has experienced grain output growth accompanied by the expanding sown area but the south was the reverse. The influence of composition changes in grain crops could also not be neglected. Thus grain production in Jiangsu production would only be sustained through grain cropping functional regionalization in the middle and north Jiangsu province,and therefore maintaining the stable share of grain crops on the whole.