重庆市产业结构、城镇化对城镇居民消费结构的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

An associated Analysis Based on VAR Model of Residents Consumption Structure,Industrial Structure and Urbanization in Chongqing

文章以重庆市城镇居民消费结构、产业结构与城镇化为研究对象,基于VAR模型,实证研究了重庆市产业结构与城镇化对城镇居民消费结构及各项消费的影响效应。结果表明,产业结构对城镇居民消费结构及各项消费的影响不明显,城镇化对城镇居民消费结构影响显著,对各项消费的影响效应差异较大。通过向量误差修正模型、方差分解的结果表明城镇化对城镇居民消费结构的升级具有短期和长期的正向促进作用。

Taking Chongqing urban residents'consumption structure,industrial structure and urbanization rate as the object of study,based on VAR model,we make an empirical study of the effects of industrial structure and urbanization rate on consumption structure of urban residents and various consumption items.The results show that the impact of industrial structure on the consumption structure of urban residents is not obvious,the impact of urbanization on urban residents'consumption structure is significant and the impact on the various consumption items is largely different.By VEC model,variance decomposition results show that urbanization has short and long term positive role for upgrading consumption structure of urban residents.