甘肃旱区马铃薯晚疫病始发期的预测研究

Prediction of late blight outbreak in arid regions of Gansu Province

本研究利用2012—2013年甘肃省马铃薯主栽区的气象资料,结合甘肃马铃薯晚疫病发生的实情,筛选出显著影响晚疫病发生的相关气象因子,建立了甘肃干旱山区,二阴区和川塬区的马铃薯晚疫病始发期预报方程,但川塬区晚疫病始发期预报模型还需进一步的设计与优化。方程模拟结果:温度是二阴区内晚疫病始发的关键因素;降水量主要影响干旱山区马铃薯的晚疫病发生;在同一地区内,川塬区和二阴区晚疫病始发期早于干旱山区,这与干旱山区空气流动性相对强于川塬区和二阴区有关。通过对甘肃干旱山区,二阴区与川塬区马铃薯晚疫病始发期预报方程进行验证,得知预报方程对干旱山区和二阴区晚疫病始发期的预测准确率较高,预测始发期区间较小,误差小,在甘肃晚疫病预警和防治工作中具有较强的指导作用。

To identify the meteorological factors that induce the outbreak of late blight,meteorological data of potato main planting area during 2012 —2013 were analyzed,as well as the observed potato late blight outbreak data in Gansu Province. Furthermore,the late blight outbreak predictive equation was constructed for the arid mountainous area including high-humid mountain and plain areas,nevertheless the late blight forecast models for the plain regions remained to be further developed and optimized. The equation indicated that the temperature was the key factor for late blight outbreak in the high-humid mountain area. Rainfall influenced the incidence of late blight in arid mountainous area. In the same area,late blight originating period occurred earlier in plain regions and highhumid mountain area than that happened in the arid mountainous area,which might be due to the relatively strong mountain air flow in arid mountainous area. According to the validation data for the equation at different sites around arid mountainous,plain and high-humid mountain areas,forecast equation on late blight in arid mountainous area and high-humid mountain area showed higher forecast accuracy than plain area,and had a strong practical role in the prediction and prevention of late blight.