投影寻踪模型在行蓄洪区运用风险评价中的应用

Application of projection pursuit model to risk assessment of flood detention zones

将行蓄洪区运用风险评价指标体系应用于基于信息熵的投影寻踪模型,得到风险评价投影值。根据结果把淮河干流行蓄洪区运用风险等级分为4类,风险等级及分类区间从高到低依次为Ⅰ级,投影值≥4.16,包括4个蓄洪区和寿西湖、鲍集圩2个行洪区;Ⅱ级,投影值为4.10~4.16,包括汤渔湖等4个行洪区;Ⅲ级,投影值为3.90~4.16,包括香浮段等7个行洪区;Ⅳ级,投影值为0~3.90,包括邱家湖等4个行洪区。

The risk assessment index system for flood detention zones is introduced into the projection pursuit model based on the information entropy,and the risk assessment projection values are obtained. According to the results,the use risks of flood detention zones of Huaihe River can be divided into four levels,that is,from high to low: 'I level'( projection value≥4. 16),including four flood detention zones and two flood areas of Shouxihu and Baojiwei; 'II level '( projection value: 4. 10 ~4. 16),including four flood areas of Tangyuhu etc.; 'III level'( projection value: 3. 90~ 4. 16),including seven flood areas of Xiangfuduan etc.; 'IV level '( projection value: 0 ~ 3. 90),including four flood areas of Qiujiahu etc.