我国地方政府债务分类纳入预算管理的初始状况分析:2014-2015

An Analysis on Taking China's Local Government Debt into Budget Management:2014-2015

本文主要通过政府信息依申请公开这一渠道,搜集整理了我国31个省份截至2014年底的存量地方债务数据和2015年的新增债务限额数据(包括一般债务和专项债务),并结合经济增长和财政运行的相应状况,对我国2014年和2015年地方债务的分省状况进行了分析(包括负债率、债务率、一般债务率和专项债务率等)。总体而言,2014年的负债率不高并在2015年有所下降,而债务率虽在2015年有所上升但基本可控,但是其中的专项债务率不容乐观并在2015年进一步恶化,并且省份之间的差异和分化更加突出。依据上述基本判断,本文相应地提出了治理管控地方债务的政策建议。

Using the channel of government information opening application, this paper collected the stock data of local debt of 31 provinces in China by the end of 2014 and new debt limitation data in 2015, including general obligation and special debt. Connected with the economic growth and fiscal operation condition, this paper analyzed provincial debt conditions in 2014 and 2015, including liability ratio, debt ratio, general debt ratio and special debt ratio, etc. Overall, liability ratio in 2014 was not high and declined in 2015. Debt ratio increased in 2015, but was almost controlled. The special rate was not optimistic and was even worse in 2015, and the difference between provinces is outstanding. Based on the above judgment, this paper puts forward some recommendations on the management and control of local debt.