区域土地财政与城镇化的协调发展关系研究——以山东省为例

Research on Coordination Relationship between Regional Land Finance and Urbanization:A Case Study of Shandong Province

研究目的:评价土地财政与城镇化之间的协调发展关系,为促进城镇可持续发展提供借鉴。研究方法:在阐述地方土地财政与城镇化协调发展关系的基础上,利用系统学思想构建二者之间的协调发展度模型,并以山东省为例,分析土地财政与城镇化协调发展的时空分布。研究结果:(1)土地财政与城镇化之间存在高度正相关性,其相互关系的拟合曲线分别适用于线性和S型;(2)从时间上看,山东省土地财政与城镇化协调发展关系呈现从失调衰退向协调发展的演变趋势;(3)从空间分布上看,山东省17地市土地财政与城镇化协调发展关系具有明显的地域差异性,东部半岛城市的协调发展度普遍大于西部内陆城市,并与经济发展水平存在显著的空间对应性。研究结论:盲目扩大城镇规模追求土地财政收入增长的模式具有不可持续性,各地应着力于发展经济,优化产业结构,才能从根本上促进土地财政与城镇化系统的协调发展。

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate coordination development correlation of land finance and urbanization, and to promote urban sustainable development. Based on synergistic theory and correlation analysis of land finance and urbanization, the coordinated development degree model of land finance and urbanization is employed. This research takes Shandong Province as a case to explore the temporal and spatial distribution of land finance and urbanization. The results show that： 1）there is a highly positive correlation between land finance and urbanization, and the fitted curves for their relationship are suitable for linear and S respectively; 2）from the temporal perspective, the coordinated development correlation of land finance and urbanization experiences the tendency from disorders of recession to coordinated development; 3）from the spatial perspective, the coordination development correlations for 17 cities in Shandong Province have obvious regional differences, and the coordination development degrees of cities in Shandong Peninsula are more than that of inland cities, and there is a significant spatial correspondence with the level of economic development. The paper concludes that blindly expanding the urban scale and pursuing land revenue growth are unsustainable. We should focus on economic development and optimizing the industrial structure, in order to fundamentally promote the coordination development of land finance and urbanization system.