中国参与北极事务的竞争对手:分析框架与应对理路

Competitors for China to Get Involved in the Arctic:Analytical Framework and the Way to Deal with It

随着北极治理博弈态势的白热化,竞争对手之间的战略互动明显加快。本文从北极战略决策者的信息需求出发,建立了基于竞争力的竞争对手分析框架,对参与北极治理博弈的国家进行了战略分组,认为日本和韩国是中国的直接竞争对手。基于动态竞争理论,文章认为中、日、韩在北极事务上将长期存在动态竞争状况,分析了日、韩参与北极事务的战略模式与竞争行为,提出中国在不断变化的北极治理态势中获取可持续竞争优势的三大战略选择。

The key for China to participate in the governance of the Arctic lies in the extent of understanding to its competitors. With the game-playing for governance of the Arctic turning white-hot, strategic interaction between competitors has accelerated. Considering the need for information of the decision-makers of the Arctic Strategy, this paper has set up the analytical framework of competitors based on their competitive power and divided strategically the countries that participated in the game-playing in the Arctic into groups, believing that Japan and ROK are direct competitors for China. Based on the dynamic competition theory, this paper holds that China will be in dynamic competition with Japan and ROK for a long time on Arctic affairs, and proposed three strategic choices for China to gain sustainable competitive advantage in the ever changing situation of the Arctic governance, after analyzing the strategic pattern and competitive behavior of Japan and ROK in their involvement with the Arctic affairs.