白龙江上游径流变化特征及其与人类活动的关系

Runoff Variation Characteristics and Its Relationship with Human Activities in Upper Reaches of Bailong River Basin

以1961～2010年白龙江上游舟曲站月径流和降水为基础,利用年内分配不均匀系数和完全调节系数、线性倾向估计、累积滤波器法、M-K秩次相关性检验、双累积曲线等方法,对白龙江上游径流变化的一般特征、变化趋势和人类活动的影响进行分析。结果表明：白龙江上游径流年内分配趋于稳定,径流年际变化呈显著下降趋势,其中4、7、9～11月份径流呈极显著减下趋势。在1970年前,白龙江上游径流变化主要受降水影响;1970年之后,人类活动对径流的影响逐渐加大,成为影响白龙江上游径流变化的主要因素。

Based on the monthly runoff data of Zhouqu Hydrologic Station in the upper reaches of the Bailong River during 1961 ～ 2010,the variation,tendency of runoff and the influence of human activity were analyzed using methods of annual runoff completely regulation,coefficient inhomogeneity coefficient,linear estimation,cumulative filter,M-K test and double mass curve.Results show that the annual runoff distribution tends to be stable in the upper reaches of Bailong River.Before 1970,the runoff variation was caused by precipitation.After 1970,the major factor of runoff variation in Bailong River had changed with the increasing impact of human activities.