2004—2015年南昌市流行性腮腺炎流行病学分析及发病趋势预测

Epidemiological analysis and trend prediction of mumps in Nanchang City from 2004-2015

目的了解南昌市流行性腮腺炎(简称流腮)流行特点,为今后制定控制策略提供科学依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法和移动平均法,对南昌市2004—2015年流腮疫情资料进行流行病学分析,对2016年发病情况进行预测。结果南昌市2004—2015年共报告流腮14 030例,每年均有报告,全年均有发病;近年来在各县区均有发生,以学生为主,病例主要集中在3—7月份;以<15岁年龄组发病率最高,发病率为33.18/10万。结论实施计划免疫对控制其疫情效果显著,应进一步加强对免疫规划工作薄弱地区、薄弱人群的预防接种工作,进一步完善其疫情的监测和报告。

[Objective] To study the epidemic characteristics of mumps in Nanchang City,provide the scientific basis for developing the control strategies. [Methods]By using the descriptive epidemiological method and moving average method,the epidemic data mumps in Nanchang City of from 2004-2015 were analyzed,to predict the epidemic situation in 2016.[Results]Totally14 030 cases of mumps were reported in Nanchang City of from 2004-2015,and the cases were reported every year and all through the year. The cases were reported in every district/county in the recent years. Most of cases were students and the peak season appeared March to July. The incidence rate in children under 15 years old was the highest,which was 33.18/lakh. [Conclusion]The implementation of planned immunization has obvious effect in mumps control. It is necessary to further strengthen the vaccination in weak regions and weak groups of immunization program,and improve the mumps monitoring and reporting.