我国贸易救济措施的效果及其可能的影响因素:以白羽肉鸡双反案为例

A Study on the Effect of Trade Remedy Measures and Their Possible Influential Factors: Based on the Case of Broiler Products

反倾销与反补贴是通过提高进口价格来限制进口,进而挽救国内产业实质损害的贸易救济措施。本文以白羽肉鸡双反案为例,利用COMPAS局部均衡模型模拟裁定税率的贸易救济效果。本文的研究发现影响贸易救济效果的重要因素是商品的国内含量(国内增加值),其政策含义是征收反倾销/反补贴税的贸易救济效果并不乐观,盲目提高惩罚性关税将以消费者福利损失作为代价,因此并非是解决国内产业发展不足的有效途径;致力于提高商品的国内增加值才是解决问题的有效途径,同时也适应了当前提高我国商品的国内增加值及在全球价值链地位的经济发展总要求。

The trade remedy measures like anti-dumping and countervailing are to restrict imports and save the domestic industries from the material injury through raising import prices. This paper, based on the case of broiler products and employing the COMPAS model, simulates the effects of the imposed duty rate in trade remedies. The conclusions demonstrate that the domestic contents of the goods （ domestic value added） is the most important factor that influence the effect of trade remedies. Its policy implication is that the effects of simply imposing anti-dumping / countervailing duties are far from opti- mistic and also at the cost of consumer welfare loss. Therefore, they are not effective ways to address in- adequate development. This article argues that an effective solution is to improve the domestic value add- ed of goods, which is also consistent with the current requirement to enhance domestic value added and status of China-made goods in the global value chain.