舰艇作战指挥决策模型可信度评估流程分析

Reliability Assessment Process Analysis of Warship Operations Command and Decision Model

舰艇作战指挥决策模型的可信度是一项复杂的系统工程,而评估流程又是这项工程的基础性工作,直接影响到可信度评估的成败。运用了评估学的基本理论对舰艇作战指挥决策模型可信度评估流程进行分析,将可信度评估分为三个阶段,即评估准备阶段、评估实施阶段和评估总结阶段,研究和阐述了这三个阶段的具体工作、要求和标准等,最后,建立了专家评审流程图、可信度评估指标体系以及用于可信度评估指标的数据采集表,分析对比了数据处理方法的优缺点。

The reliability assessment of warship operations command and decision model is a complex systems engineering. However, the assessment process is a groundwork of this systems which can directly affect the success or failure of reliability assessment. This paper applies the basic theory of valuations to analyse the reliability assessment process of warship opera-tions command and decision model, and divides into three stages that is evaluation preparation phase, evaluation implemen-tation phase and evaluation summary phase. Moreover, it has researched and explained the specific work, requirements and standards of the three stages. Finally it set up an expert review process chart,the credibility index system and a data acquisition table which can use on the reliability assessment, and analies and compares the advantages and disadvantages of the data processing method.