青岛市大气NO_2浓度影响因素的分析及预测研究

Analysis and Prediction of Qingdao Atmospheric NO_2 Concentration Factors

利用灰色系统理论的灰色关联度分析法,对影响青岛市大气NO_2浓度的影响因子进行定量分析,同时建立了大气NO_2浓度的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,对青岛市大气NO_2浓度进行了预测。结果表明,影响青岛市大气NO_2浓度的第一位因素是耗煤量,其次是绿化覆盖率,未来五年内青岛市大气NO_2浓度呈平稳下降趋势。为今后青岛市制定大气环境规划、防治大气污染提供了科学依据。

Using the gray system theory method, it is identified by correlation analysis that superior factors affecting the atmospheric NO2 concentration of Qingdao are from the coal consumption and green cover rate, while establishing atmospheric NO2 concentrations of gray GM （ 1,1 ） forecast model. And with the gray GM （ 1,1 ） , Qingdao NO2 concentrations in the atmosphere showed a steady downward trend over the five years. The paper makes scientific reference for planning the atmospheric environment and harnessing pollution for Qingdao.