1960～2013年我国霾污染的时空变化

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Haze Pollution over China from 1960 to 2013

利用近54年（1960～2013年）我国霾日以及一些相关气象要素的观测资料,采用气候倾向估计、聚类分析、累积距平和突变检验等多种方法,分析了我国霾日数变化特征.结果表明：我国的霾污染主要发生在中东部和南部,尤以北京、山西中部和南部、河南局部地区、长江三角洲和珠江三角洲等地最为严重,我国西部和东北部地区相对较少.霾日发生的频率总体呈增加的趋势,而且与能源消耗总量有很好的正相关关系.我国霾日数的增加除了依赖于污染源排放加剧外,不利的气候条件加剧了霾天气的发生.近54年降水日数、平均风速、日照时数和相对湿度与霾日数的相关系数分别为-0.653、-0.635、-0.462和-0.699,远远超出了99.9%的信度检验标准.聚类分析表明,上升极显著、上升显著和上升明显的站点年平均霾日数近年来均有加速上升的趋势,其累积距平的变化趋势为下降-平缓-上升型.轻微上升站点上升时期为20世纪60年代至70年代末与2000年之后,累积距平为多波动型.轻微下降与下降明显的站点快速上升时期为60年代至70年代末,随后均有不同程度的下降,累积距平呈上升-平缓-下降型,且在1992～1993年间霾日数发生了由多到少的突变.

Based on haze observation and related meteorological data from the surface weather stations in China during 1960-2013,we analyzed the variation of haze days and its relationship to meteorological elements using climatic linear-trend estimation,cluster analysis,cumulative departure and the Mann-Kendall test. The results showed that the haze events occurred mainly in mid-eastern and southern China,especially in Beijing,central and southern areas of Shanxi,Henan,the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta areas. At the same time,the haze days were less frequently observed in western and northeastern China. The occurrence of haze days was increasing in the past 54 years,which was consistent with the total energy consumption in China. While the emission of air pollutant could be an important factor of haze increase,the adverse weather conditions also played a role. The correlation coefficients of precipitation,average wind speed,sunshine duration and relative humidity with haze days were-0. 653,-0. 635,-0. 462 and-0. 699,respectively,which all exceeded the 99. 9% significance. Cluster analysis showed that haze days of stations with very significant increase,significant increase and obvious increase have accelerated in recent years,and the trend of cumulative variance type was fall-flat-rise. Haze days of slight rise station increased from 1960 s to the late1970 s and after 2000,of which cumulative variance type was multi wobbled. Moreover,Haze days of slight fall and obvious fall stations increased from 1960 s to 1970 s,and their cumulative variance types were rise-gently-fall. Furthermore,haze days showed mutation from more to less during 1992 to 1993.