“十三五”配电网规划负荷预测研究分析(四)

Load Forecasting Analysis Distribution Network Planning and Design Research(Ⅳ)

重点分析了A市电网电力电量负荷预测和电源规划,通过对A市历史电力电量、分区负荷和年负荷曲线和日负荷曲线的分析研究,采用负荷密度指标法,大用户加自然增长法和弹性系数分别对电力电量和负荷预测,得出高、中和低三种方案,可以适用于电网规划的各种应用情况。以期对电网建设超前和可靠性性有一定的借鉴作用。

This paper analyzes the power load forecasting and power planning A city power grid, this history in A city, partition of electricity load and load curve and the daily load curve analysis and research, u-sing the load density index method, big users and natural growth method and elastic coefficient of electric power and load forecasting respectively, it is concluded that high, medium and low three solutions, can be applied to various application of power grid planning. Advance in order to power grid construction and reli-ability is of certain reference value.