东海渔获量受捕捞努力与气候因子影响的年际变动分析

Effect of Climate Factors and Fishing Pressure on Total Fishery Resources in East China Sea

为研究捕捞努力和气候因子对东海渔获总量变动的影响,采用长时间序列的渔业统计资料和气候变化数据对1955~2013年的东海渔获量进行分析.用FOX剩余产量模型拟合捕捞努力的影响,结果显示渔获总量与捕捞努力间相关性显著（R2=0.967,P〈0.05）;分析东海典型的气候因子（海表温度、降水、冬季风、夏季风）与渔获总量的耦合性,结果显示东海渔获总量与各气候因子间的相关性显著（P〈0.05）,说明气候因子对渔获总量的变化具有显著影响;最后对渔获总量在捕捞努力与气候因子的共同作用下进行拟合,建立了比FOX模型拟合度更高的模型（R2=0.976,P〈0.05）,使其可用于研究气候因子和捕捞努力对东海渔获总量影响相关的研究.

In order to study the changes of the total catch in the East China Sea, the fishery statistical data and the climate change data are collected and analyzed from 1955 to 2013 in the East China Sea. The fishing effect caused by the fishing pressure can be fitted with FOX model, and the model fitting results indicate that the total fishery catch is in significant correlation with fishing pressure （R2=0.967, P〈0.05）. The correlation between typical climate factors including SST, precipitation, winter wind and summer wind, and the total catches of the East China Sea is also studied. Results demonstrate the significant correlation between the fish amount and the three climate factors （P〈0.05）. In the end, the total catch is fitted with the joint effects of the fishing pressure and climate factors. It is found that the fitting degree is higher than that in the FOX model （R2=0.976, P〈0.05）.