产业结构与环境污染之间倒“U”型曲线关系的检验——基于产业结构调整幅度和经济增长速度共同影响视角的分析

An Inverted-U Curve Test about Industrial Structure and Environment Pollution in View of the Common Influence of the Industrial Adjustment Extent and the Economic Growth Speed

从经济增长速度和产业结构调整幅度共同影响视角对产业结构与环境污染之间的倒"U"型曲线关系进行研究。数值模拟研究表明:产业结构调整幅度和经济增长速度会同时对环境污染排放量产生影响,在整个产业结构调整阶段,不论产业结构调整幅度和经济增长速度有多大,以第三产业所占比重度量的产业结构与环境污染排放量之间始终存在倒"U"型曲线关系。采用中国2004年至2014年的数据进行了验证,结果表明:我国产业结构与废水排放量、工业固体废弃物产生量及SO2排放量之间均存在倒"U"型曲线关系;目前我国废水和工业固体废弃物还没有到达倒"U"型曲线的拐点位置,而SO2已经越过倒"U"型曲线的拐点位置。

This paper tests the inverted-U curve about industrial structure and environment pollution in view of the common influence of the economic growth speed and the industrial adjustment extent.The numerical simulation shows that the inverted-U curve between industrial structure and environment pollution always exist whatever how much the industrial adjustment extent and the economic growth speed.China data from 2004 to 2014 test shows that the inverted-U curve exist between waste water or industrial solid waste or sulfur dioxide emissions and industrial structure.Waste water or industrial solid waste has not reach the inverted-U curve turnoff position,sulfur dioxide has cross the inverted-U curve turnoff position.