安徽省固定资产投资与农业经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Fixed Assets Investment and Agricultural Economic Growth in Anhui Province

基于C—D生产函数和已有的理论基础,选取1990—2014年安徽省16个地级市的面板数据,分别构建农业经济增长的静态和动态面板模型,利用"异方差—序列相关—截面相关"稳健型协方差矩阵来估计静态面板模型系数的标准误,同时基于二步系统GMM法对动态面板模型系数进行估计,结果表明:我省各地级市农业产出呈现逐渐增大的趋势,农业经济增长的波动是一个连续的动态调整过程;我省各地级市的固定资产投资所带来的直接边际产出效应相对较小,但影响非常显著;而农业劳动力投入对农业经济增长的边际产出较大,但影响不够显著。建议加大公共性农业投入;加快农村劳动向非农产业转移,提升农业产出的规模效益,促进农业经济持续稳定增长。

Based on C-D production function and other theories, this paper chooses panel data of 16 prefecture level cities of Anhui Province from 1990 to 2014 and builds static and dynamic panel models of agricultural economic growth. ＂Heteroskedasticity, sequence correlation and cross correlation＂ robust covariance matrix is used to estimate standard error of static panel model coefficient, and the two-step GMM method to estimate coefficient of dynamic panel model. The results show that these cities have undergone a steady increase in agricultural output, and agricultural economic growth is a continuous dynamic process of fluctuation; direct marginal output effect to agricultural economic growth brought about by fixed assets investment is comparably small but very prominent, and that by agricultural labor input is more obvious but less prominent. Therefore, it is suggested in the paper to increase investment in public agriculture, accelerate transfer of rural labor force to non-agricultural industries, improve scale merit of agricultural output, and promote sustainable and steady growth of agricultural economy.