论我国的宏观债务风险及其防范方法

On Macro-debt Risk in China and Its Preventive Methods

宏观债务风险是从整体债权人的角度分析的债务风险。与世界主要国家相比,我国政府债务风险处于偏低的水平,居民和企业债务风险则处于偏高的水平。我国居民和企业负债率偏高的供给方原因是我国货币供给的持续增长,需求方的原因是我国企业依赖于债务融资以及我国居民住房抵押贷款迅速发展。我国政府负债率趋向上升的原因是我国中央政府支出肩负着经济建设的职能以及地方政府具有内在的借债冲动。宏观负债率的不断上升带来宏观债务风险,如果房地产市场泡沫破裂,或者经济持续出现不景气,宏观债务风险将会爆发,并对宏观经济产生破坏性影响。因此,我国政府要通过加强对商业银行的风险监管,降低企业的负债率,转变财政赤字观和抑制地方政府的借债冲动来防范宏观债务风险。

Macro-debt risk is a debt risk for all creditors.In comparison with the other countries around the world,the government debt risk in China is at a low level;but the resident and firm debt is rather high.On the one hand,the cause for the high resident and firm debt ratio,from the supply perspective,rests with the continuous increase of monetary supply;and from the demand aspect,it rests with the rapid increase of debt financing and mortgage.On the other hand,the cause of government debt ratio increase lies in that the expenditure of the Central Government bears the function of economic development and local governments have impulse of debt financing.It follows that the increase of macro-debt ratio may lead to macro-debt risk.If the bubbles of real estate break or the economic recession continues,then macro-debt risk will break off as well,which would put destructive effect on our economy.In that regard,Chinese Government must concern to strengthen the risk supervision of commercial banks,reduce the debt ratio of firms,change the idea of deficit budget,and control local governments＇impulse of debt financing so as to guard against possible macro-debt risks.