中国机电产品出口中东欧国家的潜力分析——基于引力模型的实证研究

Potential Analysis of Chinese Machinery and Electronic Products Export to Central and Eastern European Countries——An Empirical Study Based on Gravity Model

在中国-中东欧国家领导人会晤以及＂一带一路＂的推动下,中国与中东欧国家的经贸合作机制日益成熟,双边贸易突飞猛进。本文基于扩展的贸易引力模型对1997~2014年中国机电产品出口中东欧国家的影响因素与潜力进行分析与测算。结果显示：双方经济规模、地理距离和汇率均对出口流量产生显著影响;技术性贸易壁垒和中东欧国家是否加入欧盟对出口流量有负影响,但并不显著;出口流量随着双方人均收入差距的扩大而增加。计算得出中国对中东欧16国的机电产品出口贸易还有巨大潜力,最后提出促进机电产品贸易的政策建议。

Economic and trade cooperation mechanism of China-CEEC is increasingly mature and bilateral trade has grown by leaps and bounds driven by China-CEEC Leaders Meeting and ＂One Belt and One Road＂. This paper analyzes and calculates the infl uencing factors and potentials of Chinese Machinery and Electronic Products export to Central and Eastern European Countries from 1997-2014 based on the expanded Trade Gravity Model. The results show that： both sides＇ economic scale, geographical distance and exchange rate all exert signifi cant effects on export fl ow; Technical Barriers to Trade and whether CEEC join the UN both have negative infl uences on export fl ow, but not signifi cant; Outlet fl ow increases with the expand of mutual per capita income gap. Computed outcome indicates that there exists immense potential on Machinery and Electronic Products export trade. Finally, the paper proposes some policy suggestions about promoting the trade.