山东省耕地资源数量变化对粮食安全的影响分析

Impact of Change in Cultivated Land Resources Quantity on Food Security in Shandong Province

以山东省耕地资源变化为研究对象,在分析1978-2012年耕地资源和粮食产量变化的基础上,运用最小人均耕地面积、耕地压力模型以及预测理论研究耕地资源变化和粮食产量之间的关系,预测耕地资源的变化对粮食安全产生的影响,探究保障粮食安全的耕地数量底线。结果表明:1978-2012年山东省耕地面积、粮食产量出现波动变化趋势,人口在逐年增加,有一段时期最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数增加趋势明显,说明此段时期山东省粮食供需差距增大,粮食安全受到威胁。未来15年内人口逐年增加,耕地面积和人均耕地面积减少,粮食产量逐年增加,最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数呈下降趋势,粮食安全不会受到威胁,主要是由于耕地生产能力的提高,耕地承载压力减小。研究结果为进一步解决山东省耕地合理利用和粮食安全之间的问题提供依据。

Using the change of cultivated land resources in Shandong Province as research object,based on the analysis of cultivated land and grain yield change in 1978-2012,the relationship between the change of cultivated land resources and grain yield was studied using the minimum per capita arable land area,cultivated land pressure model and prediction theory,the impact of change of cultivated land resources on food security was predicted,and the bottom line of cultivated land quantity guaranteeing the food security was researched. The results showed that from 1978 to 2012,the cultivated area and grain yield in Shandong Province took on fluctuation change trend,the population was increasing year by year. During a period of time,the minimum per capita arable land area and cultivated land pressure index increased obviously,which indicated that the grain supply and demand gap of Shandong Province increased in this period,and the food security was under threat. The prediction results showed that in the next 15 years,the population would increase year by year,the cultivated land area and per capita arable land area would decrease,the grain yield would increase with years,the minimum per capita arable land area and cultivated land pressure index would show declining tendency,thus the food security would not under threat mainly due to the increase of production capacity of arable land and the decrease of pressure that arable land bearing. These results would provide basis for furthersettling the problem between rational use of cultivated land and food safety in Shandong Province.