基于改进C-D生产函数的河南省建筑业劳动力市场动态预测

Dynamic Forecasting of Labor Resources of Construction Industry Market in Henan Based on Improved C-D Production Function

根据河南省统计年鉴和调查数据,建立改进的C-D生产函数模型和动态存储模型预测河南省建筑业劳动力市场的供需数量。结果显示:未来十年河南省建筑业劳动力市场将呈供过于求的现象,但供给数量逐年减少。中方案下需求数量不断减少并趋于稳定,到2025年建筑业劳动力市场的供需数量相差约24万人。

According to the Henan statistical yearbook and the survey data,this paper establishes the improved C-D production function model and the dynamic storage model,which can predict the quantity of the labor supply and demand of construction industry in Henan province. The results show that the construction industry in Henan in the next ten years,will present labor oversupply phenomenon,but the supply of labor resources will reduce year by year. In the middle level program,the demand of the labor resources quantity will reduce and tend to be stable,the number of supply and demand of labor market in the construction industry has a difference of abount 240 thousand by 2025.