数学模型支撑下的人布鲁氏菌病防控工作特征分析及启示

The Characteristics of the human brucellosis control and prevention with the support of mathematical model

目的总结2004年来数学模型在国内外布鲁氏菌病研究中的应用现状,为该主题相关领域的研究工作提供参考。方法收集2004年以来中国知识基础设施工程和Pub Med数据库所收录的基于数学模型的布鲁氏菌病防控相关学术论文,分析所应用的数学模型和研究内容。结果共纳入合格文献8篇,其中英文文献2篇、中文文献6篇。纳入的文献主要集中发表于2011-2015年之间,所涉及的模型包括灰色模型、ARIMA模型、贝叶斯时空模型和动力学模型。所收集的数据囊括了内蒙古、辽宁、浙江、云南等9省疫情监测资料以及印度部分监测资料。结论在数学模型支撑下的人布鲁氏菌病防控工作已经取得了一定的进步,应该在更大范围的实际应用中验证其有效性,为应用数学理论的传染病研究带来更多的可能。

Objective To summarize the application of mathematical models in the field of human brucellosis control and prevention, aiming at providing some reference for related research fields. Methods Those publications that indexed in China Knowledge Infrastructure and PubMed databases from 2004 to 2015 were collected, and the applied mathematical models and research contents were reviewed. Results A total of eight qualified publications were included, two in English and six in Chinese, those literature mainly published between 2011 and 2015. The models involved include gray model, ARIMA model, Bayesian temporal and dynamic models. The surveillance data in those publications covered nine provinces and India. Conclusion The control and prevention of human brucellosis has made steady progress with the support of mathematical models. Those models should be applied in a wider range of practice, which might bring more possibility of theoretical epidemiology.