海南省社会医疗保险基金保障能力预测分析——基于转移函数模型的实证检验

Forecast on the Security Ability of Hainan Social Health Insurance Fund——Based on Empirical Test of Transfer Function Model

本文利用1994-2014年海南省城镇基本医疗保险基金的相关数据,运用回归与时间序列组合模型(即转移函数模型),对海南省社会医疗保险基金保障能力的影响因素进行分析,并对未来10年海南医疗保险基金保障能力进行预测,为海南省医疗保险基金的有效管理提供有价值的参考。

According to 1994--2014 years of relevant data about Hainan social health insurance fund, this paper used regression and time series combined model（that is transfer function model）, analyzed the influence factors of social health insurance fund support capability, and forecasted the support capability of Hainan health insurance funds for next 10 years providing valuable for a reference about the effective management of Hainan MBF.