水资源和水环境双重约束下的河北省产业结构调整研究

INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENT UNDER DURAL CONSTRAINTS OF WATER RESOURCE AND ENVIRONMENT IN HEBEI PROVINCE

基于投入产出表构建河北省水资源、水环境和社会经济可持续发展动态最优化模型,并利用LINGO软件进行模拟实验,研究受水资源和水环境双重约束的不同情景下的经济增长情况。研究表明,在最优情景(综合情景)中,产业结构调整、财政补贴利用再生水和南水北调水及引进先进的污水处理技术的政策组合,可以有效促进河北省水资源、水环境和经济的可持续发展;2025年比2015年化学需氧量(COD)减排10%,2007—2025年经济增长率平均为7.51%,2025年三次产业产值结构比例优化为12∶32∶54,2025年河北省农业、工业、居民生活用水和生态景观用水的比例优化为59%、21%、12%和8%,地下水、地表水、再生水和调入水的比例优化为63%、16%、7%和13%。为了保障各项政策的实施,2015—2025年河北省政府水资源供给的最优财政补贴为78.13亿元,其中补贴新建污水处理厂52.25亿元,补贴再生水利用管网建设25.88亿元。

This paper establishes a dynamically-optimized model of sustainable development for Hebei＇s water resource,water environment and social economy based on input / output table,and uses LINGO software to simulate the economic growth in different scenarios under dual constraints of water resource and environment. In the case of optimized scenario（ comprehensive scenario）,industrial adjustment,fiscal allowance for recycling water and south-water-north-transfer,introduction of waste water processing technology can promote the sustainable development of Hebei＇s water resource,environment and economy. COD emission will be reduced by 10% in 2025 compared to the year of 2015. Economic growth rate will be 7. 51% annually from 2007 to 2025. Industrial structure will be optimized to 12∶ 32∶ 54 in 2025 among the three industries. Water use in agriculture,industry,living and landscaping will be optimized to 59%,21%,12%and 8%. Underground water,surface water,recycling water and input water will be optimized to 63%,16%,7% and13%. Hebei provincial government will provide fiscal allowance 7. 813 billion RMB in water resource supply,of which 5.225 in newly-constructed waste water plants,and 2. 588 in recycling water piping.