啮齿动物群落多样性对气候变化滞后效应的研究

Lag Response of Rodent Community Diversity to Climate Change

以阿拉善典型温性荒漠为试验区,选取不同放牧干扰下2009~2014年4~7月啮齿动物群落ShannonWiener指数和2006~2014年气象因子,分别建立BP神经网络模型,模拟啮齿动物群落Shannon-Wiener指数对气候变化的滞后响应。结果表明：不同放牧干扰下BP神经网络模型预测效果不同（拟合优度分别为0.9499、0.9442和0.8678）,轮牧干扰优于禁牧和过牧;啮齿动物群落Shannon-Wiener指数对气候变化的响应存在明显的滞后效应,禁牧、轮牧、过牧干扰下分别滞后3个月、3个月、1个月;根据滞后效应和滞后时间,可以提前预测不同放牧干扰下Shannon-Wiener指数的变化趋势,继而为鼠害防治工作提供理论指导。

The study was conducted in a typical warm desert area of Alashan to study the lagging response of rodent communities to climate change,the Shannon-Wiener index and meteorological factors in2006 ~ 2014 were used to establish the BP neural network model under the different grazing disturbance from 2009 to 2014.The results indicated that 1）The effect of the prediction of the BP neural network model were different under different grazing type（goodness of fit values were 0.9499,0.9442 and 0.8678,respectively）,and rotational grazing was better than that of grazing enclosure and overgrazing.2）Shannon-Wiener index of the rodent communities which was affected by climate change had obvious hysteresis effect,and lagged for 3 months,3 months and 1 month for grazing enclosure,rotational grazing,and overgrazing,respectively.3）According to the lag effect and the lag time,it will be predicted in advance for the change trend of Shannon-Wiener index under different grazing disturbance,which can provide theoretical guidance for prevention and control of rodents.